Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7583

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.648). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7582, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7583
    23 Oct 2026, 13:32 UTC

    USP8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUSP8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8c42d8abccafec80

    discovery+0.18 p=0.648 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.648)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f15c21e357e111c1b5c3c568…
    follows 17d0d0d01849…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7583: USP8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.02, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for USP8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.