Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7572

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.785). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7571, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7572
    23 Oct 2026, 13:18 UTC

    HSF1

    microglia, braak

    predictionHSF1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8f67870114e02d52

    discovery+0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.673 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.785)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7fd957e59f934719d10970ac…
    follows f0fdc1a73079…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7572: HSF1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HSF1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.