Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7507

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.090). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7506, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7507
    23 Oct 2026, 11:47 UTC

    PSMC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPSMC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6c2aac7725e286ca

    discovery+0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.125 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.090)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b203e82d9b4f3dc30faaea1e…
    follows 56062773c958…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7507: PSMC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18), 95% CI +0.20 to +0.84. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.57 to +0.71, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSMC1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.