Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7495

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7494, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7495
    23 Oct 2026, 11:27 UTC

    CD81

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCD81 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered85ffe400f4c1f791

    discovery-0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.276 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3cf231b0c3dd179d83f24d68…
    follows 7c8db7cdd8cc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7495: CD81 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD81 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.