Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0747

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.644). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 746, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0747
    17 Oct 2026, 05:46 UTC

    CCDC88A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCCDC88A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd3829b6d08b4cc1d

    discovery+0.18 p=0.644 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.644)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aa02ac8a127b413475ee8854…
    follows ad3814a89b49…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0747: CCDC88A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCDC88A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.