Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7431

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.136). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7430, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7431
    23 Oct 2026, 09:59 UTC

    SRF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSRF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda363cdf267d33fff

    discovery-0.54 p=0.136 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.441 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.136)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    da03c0e7e684fc6114b8ad53…
    follows 83f818171458…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7431: SRF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SRF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.