Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7396

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.186). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7395, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7396
    23 Oct 2026, 09:15 UTC

    CD86

    microglia, braak

    predictionCD86 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8e54ab024e942d46

    discovery+0.48 p=0.186 n=9

    replication-0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.186)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    45c3bf9931eb924e665c092f…
    follows 4f6b513172d6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7396: CD86 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.01, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD86 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.