Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7376

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.018; held-out -0.04 p 0.912). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7375, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7376
    23 Oct 2026, 08:50 UTC

    SETD1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSETD1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1ef146bd6c70f46e

    discovery-0.76 p=0.018 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.912 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.018; held-out -0.04 p 0.912)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    da88cfa489ec8120d8cc84da…
    follows fbcf679a026c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7376: SETD1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SETD1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.