Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7361

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.894). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7360, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7361
    23 Oct 2026, 08:31 UTC

    MMP16

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMMP16 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredce85ff3fbeb1f7c7

    discovery+0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.894)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8ee42ec20ed9276db84ebd5a…
    follows a31b43d04247…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7361: MMP16 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.06, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MMP16 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.