Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7330

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7329, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7330
    23 Oct 2026, 07:50 UTC

    CTSZ

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCTSZ in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered129034f44a4c83c2

    discovery-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4bf2ced8755573eb1b8427bd…
    follows 3559d4fbc77f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7330: CTSZ in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTSZ in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.