Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0726

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.42 p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 725, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0726
    17 Oct 2026, 05:16 UTC

    FOXK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFOXK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered685b0402ef9777e8

    discovery-0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.42 p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    eeb7c282913f96074c006ab3…
    follows b434aa4252f8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0726: FOXK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to +0.00. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.041, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FOXK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.