Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0072

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.32 p 0.036; held-out -0.03 p 0.853). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 71, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0072
    16 Oct 2026, 15:55 UTC

    ADORA2A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADORA2A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd2d489d5f8f16095

    discovery-0.32 p=0.036 n=42

    replication-0.03 p=0.853 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.32 p 0.036; held-out -0.03 p 0.853)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    61a87b3d20e1e6f42fcc620d…
    follows 890ac70385df…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0072: ADORA2A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.129, n 84), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.05. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.17 (p 0.113, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.333, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.087, n 75). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.43 (p 5.0e-5, n 84) vs -0.17 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADORA2A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up ADORA2A · microglia · braak: ventral tegmental area -0.24 p 0.030 (needs p < 0.0042)