Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7196

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7195, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7196
    23 Oct 2026, 04:54 UTC

    SLC16A12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC16A12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered323edcf151941189

    discovery-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication+0.84 p=0.0043 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c419be9d9e5b9c62319a1365…
    follows db3201ea19c9…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7196: SLC16A12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.101, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC16A12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.