Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7149

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.014; held-out -0.04 p 0.910). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7148, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7149
    23 Oct 2026, 03:48 UTC

    SHH

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSHH in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered59c104bdd4d447e5

    discovery-0.78 p=0.014 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.910 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.014; held-out -0.04 p 0.910)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    d3955311e638bbf954962628…
    follows 65069c213e16…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7149: SHH in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SHH in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.