Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7134

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.204). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7133, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7134
    23 Oct 2026, 03:28 UTC

    MAPK9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAPK9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda5999d359b3a506e

    discovery+0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.204)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cbfc109a0c02a0d1f66a1ce6…
    follows dbfb3bf5571d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7134: MAPK9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.20 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPK9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.