Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0705

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.073). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 704, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0705
    17 Oct 2026, 04:48 UTC

    SREBF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSREBF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered353e0d3e74a569d7

    discovery-0.62 p=0.073 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.073)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d6e24ce3d72ea65debf16686…
    follows a3bd09477594…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0705: SREBF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SREBF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.