Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7023

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.172). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7022, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7023
    23 Oct 2026, 01:48 UTC

    STAT4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTAT4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede19c97cbec9d8ff7

    discovery+0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    replication+0.74 p=0.024 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.172)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9bdef29e9e6d9dc9d970c190…
    follows 3b34c2699568…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7023: STAT4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18), 95% CI +0.19 to +0.84. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.66 (p 0.0026, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.56 to +0.81, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STAT4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.