Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0697

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.111). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 696, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0697
    17 Oct 2026, 04:34 UTC

    RELA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRELA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered40f2ab2050b56fcc

    discovery-0.57 p=0.111 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.111)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ba365ca82824c1b25ccee4b9…
    follows 18fc837dd054…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0697: RELA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RELA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.