Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6916

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.436). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6915, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6916
    22 Oct 2026, 23:23 UTC

    OXR1

    microglia, braak

    predictionOXR1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf7ee9e8d7dee63b0

    discovery-0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    replication+0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.436)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f0873f40848fb6e9c4b7e5a8…
    follows 49cda88e8d75…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6916: OXR1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OXR1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.