Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6911

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6910, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6911
    22 Oct 2026, 23:17 UTC

    ACBD7

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionACBD7 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7904e21848124f4e

    discovery-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    48387afbc078421e01435bd8…
    follows b4d3698b2e4c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6911: ACBD7 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACBD7 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.