Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6909

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6908, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6909
    22 Oct 2026, 23:14 UTC

    ATP5F1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATP5F1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0817e6f59a1ce955

    discovery+0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.103 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2f8b085773c9a6e58f3605b8…
    follows ef91b09cef5b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6909: ATP5F1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP5F1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.