Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6903

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.459). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6902, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6903
    22 Oct 2026, 23:06 UTC

    KCNK13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCNK13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7c8a301716afe7fe

    discovery+0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    replication+0.08 p=0.839 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.459)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    94116c16cdd8a669c17ef72e…
    follows 3d34e7a4214e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6903: KCNK13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNK13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.