Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6898

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.514). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6897, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6898
    22 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC

    FOXO4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFOXO4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9d2707062dd72216

    discovery+0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.514)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a4759a5a55d4c37bdf0c7e82…
    follows 2e2a7533580f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6898: FOXO4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FOXO4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.