Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6882

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.186). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6881, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6882
    22 Oct 2026, 22:39 UTC

    TLR10

    microglia, braak

    predictionTLR10 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0d336642f4c031eb

    discovery-0.48 p=0.186 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.186)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7d89dbd8aae3af079e2896d6…
    follows de1b7900fb7e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6882: TLR10 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18), 95% CI -0.84 to -0.20. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.74 to -0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TLR10 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.