Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6862

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6861, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6862
    22 Oct 2026, 22:11 UTC

    HSP90B1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHSP90B1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfdf712c546c5e155

    discovery+0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.910 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7e1668305f8a22caa3c96384…
    follows db2c1774bf0d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6862: HSP90B1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.13, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HSP90B1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.