Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6858

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.389). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6857, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6858
    22 Oct 2026, 22:06 UTC

    ZFP36

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZFP36 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredadc464b81880879b

    discovery-0.33 p=0.389 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.389)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7f9b59bc6fab075f9b3c922d…
    follows 1818e61b5bb2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6858: ZFP36 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZFP36 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.