Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6842

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.473). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6841, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6842
    22 Oct 2026, 21:44 UTC

    GPR17

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPR17 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9911c3a5ad1ce55e

    discovery+0.28 p=0.473 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.251 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.473)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    91f8d65e8a7db58c083116da…
    follows 3a60a338c5b5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6842: GPR17 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR17 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.