Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6798

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.777). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6797, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6798
    22 Oct 2026, 20:46 UTC

    CASP8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCASP8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede95fd0895153a879

    discovery+0.11 p=0.777 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.607 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.777)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7ca4649fbc4f96e1434de96d…
    follows a17ffa346845…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6798: CASP8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.16, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18) vs +0.03 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CASP8 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CASP8 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.30 p 0.286 (needs p < 3.1e-4)