Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6754

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6753, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6754
    22 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC

    GPATCH2L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPATCH2L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede1011e3cef095c8d

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.724 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fd88ee8d5085753c649115a8…
    follows 9385b71be3da…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6754: GPATCH2L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.15, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPATCH2L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.