Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6713

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.031; held-out +0.15 p 0.705). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6712, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6713
    22 Oct 2026, 18:50 UTC

    PRMT5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRMT5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2523f9c46b826371

    discovery-0.71 p=0.031 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.031; held-out +0.15 p 0.705)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    8944133550f4b1d3838aa475…
    follows b2bc2feae73f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6713: PRMT5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRMT5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.