Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6708

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6707, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6708
    22 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC

    PADI2

    microglia, braak

    predictionPADI2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf0b4b9d1e5211a3c

    discovery-0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    replication-0.23 p=0.545 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    86d7d6d3897005cdc95e05af…
    follows 85a9a1c2227c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6708: PADI2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.04, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PADI2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.