Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0670

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 669, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0670
    17 Oct 2026, 03:53 UTC

    CTSL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCTSL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9542166f06a9a40a

    discovery+0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.888 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    66fee0517b33a36863a86461…
    follows 49b15adcd17c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0670: CTSL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.14, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTSL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.