Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6630

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.047; held-out -0.14 p 0.725). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6629, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6630
    22 Oct 2026, 16:55 UTC

    KLHL40

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKLHL40 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredded7998019ea9de9

    discovery-0.67 p=0.047 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.725 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.047; held-out -0.14 p 0.725)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    eef2de932d037fc7b0716020…
    follows d0b56ac59cdd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6630: KLHL40 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KLHL40 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.