Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6628

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6627, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6628
    22 Oct 2026, 16:52 UTC

    MTHFD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMTHFD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede250548c41f6cfa8

    discovery+0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a259c81e39f9d2c5b639ab97…
    follows 08defaa93de0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6628: MTHFD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MTHFD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.