Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6618

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.739). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6617, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6618
    22 Oct 2026, 16:38 UTC

    CAMK2G

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCAMK2G in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered15d8d513d6d5cb19

    discovery+0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.739)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bbae2f87f14ae7fab89444c0…
    follows 210b92420501…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6618: CAMK2G in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CAMK2G in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.