Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0066

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.825). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 65, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0066
    16 Oct 2026, 15:49 UTC

    DRD4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDRD4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered479f8aad2242b70b

    discovery+0.04 p=0.825 n=42

    replication+0.04 p=0.797 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.825)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    404cb4d9cb9d361816e30455…
    follows 8478e24e0a81…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0066: DRD4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.829, n 84), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.19. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.03 (p 0.768, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.464, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.01, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.793, n 75). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DRD4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.