Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6565

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6564, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6565
    22 Oct 2026, 15:29 UTC

    NAIP

    microglia, braak

    predictionNAIP in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered092cbe895c804e57

    discovery+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication-0.74 p=0.024 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c6c72c0ecd889e1ff3ff58c6…
    follows a548eb2ae890…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6565: NAIP in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NAIP in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.