Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6549

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.520). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6548, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6549
    22 Oct 2026, 15:07 UTC

    MBNL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMBNL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7ce25c27475cbdbf

    discovery-0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.520)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    513d248ba49d37b0c9211ba3…
    follows 69d3b1ade175…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6549: MBNL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.16, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MBNL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.