Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6526

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.656). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6525, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6526
    22 Oct 2026, 14:34 UTC

    CYP7B1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCYP7B1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb390b2a2931961c8

    discovery+0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.656)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6f3d9ee2c283367b7f59af1a…
    follows 1ecdd1e63e34…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6526: CYP7B1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.12, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CYP7B1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.