Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6512

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.88 p 0.0020; held-out -0.14 p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6511, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6512
    22 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC

    ATG10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATG10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5854f59a72f66f22

    discovery+0.88 p=0.0020 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.88 p 0.0020; held-out -0.14 p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    16133e0fb3596aa5381138ee…
    follows 16454ff1dec4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6512: ATG10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.25, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATG10 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.