Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6464

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.168). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6463, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6464
    22 Oct 2026, 13:14 UTC

    LY96

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLY96 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered55ea4cec00fb672b

    discovery+0.50 p=0.168 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.874 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.168)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    351af1372ea55cfd0280b49c…
    follows 7179505d7cf0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6464: LY96 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LY96 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.