Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6457

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.443). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6456, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6457
    22 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC

    RPS6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPS6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6c1f388d58b4d7a7

    discovery+0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.623 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.443)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3e196941d03b73878621373f…
    follows d717a9c3fdd4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6457: RPS6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPS6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.