Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6440

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6439, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6440
    22 Oct 2026, 12:41 UTC

    CDH2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCDH2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered081be875014d7835

    discovery+0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    13d5c3db2f1ff93660eb5575…
    follows cf42e29edf32…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6440: CDH2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDH2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.