Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6410

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6409, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6410
    22 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC

    ARFGEF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARFGEF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb92a47118ff5de91

    discovery+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    247165281b636bddb2622c76…
    follows 51ff881bf2a8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6410: ARFGEF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARFGEF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.