Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6379

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6378, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6379
    22 Oct 2026, 11:19 UTC

    CASP9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCASP9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8d593012a41f6e2c

    discovery-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1b308ae7a198370f1b1dc456…
    follows a8fc0d7f98f8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6379: CASP9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CASP9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.