Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6346

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.116). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6345, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6346
    22 Oct 2026, 10:35 UTC

    IKBKG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIKBKG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4dec4f421b5dd51c

    discovery-0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.239 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.116)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d55da14930403a4df9137e6e…
    follows 7fac758b13e4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6346: IKBKG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to +0.00. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.64 (p 0.0045, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.63 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IKBKG in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.