Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6334

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.545). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6333, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6334
    22 Oct 2026, 10:21 UTC

    PIK3CG

    microglia, braak

    predictionPIK3CG in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc00a2b9b3fa2bc62

    discovery+0.23 p=0.545 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.545)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    43a2f92b824acfe94f16abe2…
    follows 1d49e1cfd7fd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6334: PIK3CG in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PIK3CG in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.