Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6326

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.563). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6325, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6326
    22 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC

    IRF8

    microglia, braak

    predictionIRF8 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7a30cd45c7d334fa

    discovery+0.22 p=0.563 n=9

    replication+0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.563)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    82fc6fc8fa6b0694935ae2b5…
    follows 6962003fa944…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6326: IRF8 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.56 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IRF8 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.