Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6320

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.673). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6319, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6320
    22 Oct 2026, 10:05 UTC

    MT3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMT3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb8019b5eb54463b6

    discovery-0.16 p=0.673 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.438 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.673)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1e6283ad331393d217b743cb…
    follows 887289d2a38f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6320: MT3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MT3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.