Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6308

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6307, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6308
    22 Oct 2026, 09:48 UTC

    OR4D9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOR4D9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf45352d8353ff81e

    discovery+0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    replication+0.94 p=2.1e-4 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dba3252e4a1fc2470a0d745b…
    follows 788c9bdffe83…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6308: OR4D9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.63 (p 0.0054, n 18), 95% CI +0.23 to +0.85. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.59 to +0.83, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.63 (p 0.0054, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OR4D9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.